About

How GapUpTracker Works

A look under the hood — the detection engine, the rerating analyzer, the technical playbook, and the historical record that keeps the whole system honest.

Detection Engine

The market's opening print is the truest read on whether an earnings report changed the story. The engine surfaces exactly those moments.

5% gap threshold

Any post-earnings open that gaps more than 5% above the previous close qualifies as a candidate. Below that level the signal-to-noise ratio collapses.

Volume filters

Session volume is compared to the 50-day average. A ratio ≥0.4× is flagged Significant; ≥1.0× is Highly Significant — the fingerprint of institutional accumulation.

Relative-strength filter

Price structure relative to the 50/200-day SMAs is checked. A gap that reclaims the 200-day SMA is tagged as a potential Stage 1→2 reversal — a regime change, not just a pop.

Rerating Analyzer

A Z.AI GLM analyst reads the earnings report across eight weighted dimensions and collapses them into a single 0–100 Rerate Score.

The 8 scoring dimensions & weights

Composite Rerate Score = weighted sum of all dimensions (0–100).

DimensionWeightWhat it captures
Products15%New products announced or scaling
Market Opportunity15%TAM expansion, new verticals or geographies
Valuation15%Forward P/E vs. market cap and sector peers (PEG logic)
FCF Trajectory15%Rising free cash flow QoQ / YoY
Partnerships10%Major customer wins, strategic partnerships
Buybacks10%New or expanded repurchase programs, shrinking share count
Guidance10%Raised vs. maintained vs. lowered
Earnings Beat10%EPS and revenue surprise magnitude
Composite Rerate Score100%Weighted total, 0–100

When no API key is configured, a transparent heuristic model derives a score from EPS surprise, guidance, gap magnitude, volume significance, and Stage-reversal signals.

Technical Entry Playbook

Every detected gap is auto-classified into one of four Deepvue-style setups, each with an entry trigger and a stop.

Day-1 Play

Gap-day · Highly Significant volume

The most aggressive entry — you buy the same session the gap happens, riding the momentum of institutional accumulation. The thesis is simple: when volume hits ≥1.0× the 50-day average on a >5% post-earnings gap, the opening print reflects a genuine repricing, not noise. A close at or above the open confirms that buyers absorbed all session-long selling pressure.

EntryEnter near the close on the gap day, or on a breakout above the opening-range high (first 30–60 minutes). Price must close at or above the opening price — a close below the open invalidates the setup.
StopGap-day low. If price breaks below the low of the gap candle, the institutional bid is gone and the move is suspect.
TargetScale out at +5%, +10%, and trail the remainder using the 10-EMA. Large gaps (>10%) on mega-cap names can extend further — let the last tranche run with a trailing stop.
Risk NotesHighest risk/reward of the four setups because you are entering before any consolidation confirms. Size down relative to the other setups. Avoid entirely on low-float names where slippage can gap through your stop.

Consolidation Entry

Days 2–20 · tight range

After the initial gap, the stock digests the move in a tight sideways range. Price coils between a well-defined high and low — typically under 8% spread — as early profit-takers exit and new buyers accumulate. The longer and tighter the base, the more compressed the energy. When price finally breaks above the range high, it tends to move fast.

EntryBuy on a daily close above the consolidation range high. Alternatively, enter on a volume surge mid-session that pushes price decisively above the range — but require a close above the high for confirmation.
StopConsolidation range low, or the gap-day low if the range low is higher. The tighter the stop (range low), the better the risk/reward.
TargetInitial target = range height projected upward from the breakout point (measured move). Trail the remaining position using the 10-EMA or the 20-day SMA.
Risk NotesWatch for false breakouts — price pokes above the range high then fades back in. A confirmed close above the high with above-average volume reduces this risk. If the consolidation range exceeds 8%, the setup weakens (too much distribution).

10-EMA Pullback

Days 2–10 · pullback to 10-EMA

Not every gap goes straight up. Many strong gaps pull back over the next several sessions as short-term traders take profits. The 10-day EMA acts as a magnet — it is the first moving average that dynamic buyers defend. When price revisits the EMA and turns back up, it offers a lower-risk entry than chasing the gap-day close.

EntryBuy when price pulls back to within 1.5% of the 10-EMA and then reclaims it (closes above) on rising volume. The reclaim candle — not the touch — is the trigger.
StopGap-day low. The gap-day low is the ultimate invalidation; if that breaks, the entire thesis is dead regardless of the EMA.
TargetInitial target = the gap-day high. Beyond that, trail using the 10-EMA. If the stock was already near the gap-day high when the pullback started, extend the target to a measured-move projection.
Risk NotesThe pullback can overshoot the EMA by 2–3% before reversing. Do not pre-buy the touch — wait for the reclaim. If the stock breaks the gap-day low during the pullback, it converts to a Failed Gap (see below).

Failed Gap

Anytime · price breaks gap-day low

A gap-up that loses its gap-day low has failed. The institutional bid that drove the open is no longer defending the level, and the stock is likely to fill the gap or trade lower. This is not a buy setup — it is an exit signal and a potential shorting opportunity. Disciplined failure management is what separates profitable gap traders from gamblers.

EntryNo new long entries. If you hold a position from a prior setup, exit immediately on the break of the gap-day low. Aggressive traders may initiate a short position with a stop at the gap-day high.
StopFor shorts: gap-day high. For longs: already stopped out at the gap-day low.
TargetGap fill — price returning to the pre-gap close — is the primary target for shorts. If the stock was in a Stage 2 uptrend before the gap, the fill may be the full gap. In weak broader markets, the stock can trade below the pre-gap close.
Risk NotesNever average down into a Failed Gap. Do not hope for a recovery — the data shows that gap failures tend to continue lower. The single most important rule in the playbook: respect the gap-day low.

Historical Tracker

Forward returns at 1-day, 5-day, 20-day, and 60-day horizons are recorded for every signal. The historical record is what makes the Rerate Score trustworthy — you can audit it.

  • Rerate Score buckets (0–25, 25–50, 50–75, 75–100) with average forward returns
  • Per-setup win rates and average returns for each playbook entry
  • Max gain and max drawdown on every tracked gap
  • Outcome feedback that sharpens the scoring model over time

Risk Disclaimer

GapUpTracker is a research and analytics tool, not investment advice. Gap-ups are volatile, illiquid, and prone to sharp reversals. Scores and setups are probabilistic models, not guarantees. Always do your own due diligence, size positions responsibly, and never risk more capital than you can afford to lose. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal.

Put the methodology to work

See today's detected gaps, Rerate Scores, and entry setups on the dashboard.

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