P&D Detector
Examines 5-day post-gap price action to classify post-earnings gap-ups as pump-and-dump patterns or genuine market reratings.
Total Analyzed
1
0 pending
Pump & Dump
1
100% of total
Genuine Rerating
0
0% of total
Uncertain
0
0% of total
Forward Returns by Classification
| Classification | Avg 5d Return | Avg 20d Return | 5d Win Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🚫 Pump & Dump | +1.8% | +49.2% | 100% |
| Ticker | Classification | Confidence | Gap % | Gap Fill | Vol Decay | Max DD | P&D Score | Rerate Score | Peak Close | Detected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMCI Super Micro Computer, Inc. | 🚫 Pump & Dump | 76% | +13.0% | 39% | 59% | -9.9% | 26.5 | 12.0 | Day 2 | May 6, 2026 |
How It Works
🚫 Pump & Dump Signals
- • Gap fills >70% within 5 days (price gives back gains)
- • Volume decays >60% from day 1 (no follow-through)
- • Lower highs pattern (distribution, not accumulation)
- • Peak close on day 1 (never recovered)
- • Disproportionate gap vs EPS beat quality
- • Max drawdown >8% from gap close
✅ Genuine Rerating Signals
- • Gap holds (<20% fill) — price maintained
- • Volume sustained (<30% decay) — institutional buying
- • Higher highs, peak close day 4-5
- • Strong EPS beat (>15%) or guidance raise
- • Revenue beat >10%
- • Minimal drawdown (<2%)
Signal weights: Gap Fill 25% · Volume Decay 20% · Price Trajectory 20% · Max Drawdown 15% · Fundamentals 20%
Classification requires ≥3 days of data; full confidence requires all 5 trading days. Classification ≥60% P&D score = Pump & Dump. ≥60% Rerating score = Genuine Rerating. Otherwise Uncertain.
Classification requires ≥3 days of data; full confidence requires all 5 trading days. Classification ≥60% P&D score = Pump & Dump. ≥60% Rerating score = Genuine Rerating. Otherwise Uncertain.