P&D Detector

Examines 5-day post-gap price action to classify post-earnings gap-ups as pump-and-dump patterns or genuine market reratings.

Total Analyzed
1
0 pending
Pump & Dump
1
100% of total
Genuine Rerating
0
0% of total
Uncertain
0
0% of total

Forward Returns by Classification

ClassificationAvg 5d ReturnAvg 20d Return5d Win Rate
🚫 Pump & Dump+1.8%+49.2%100%
TickerClassificationConfidenceGap %Gap FillVol DecayMax DDP&D ScoreRerate ScorePeak CloseDetected
SMCI
Super Micro Computer, Inc.
🚫 Pump & Dump76%+13.0%39%59%-9.9%26.512.0Day 2May 6, 2026

How It Works

🚫 Pump & Dump Signals

  • • Gap fills >70% within 5 days (price gives back gains)
  • • Volume decays >60% from day 1 (no follow-through)
  • • Lower highs pattern (distribution, not accumulation)
  • • Peak close on day 1 (never recovered)
  • • Disproportionate gap vs EPS beat quality
  • • Max drawdown >8% from gap close

✅ Genuine Rerating Signals

  • • Gap holds (<20% fill) — price maintained
  • • Volume sustained (<30% decay) — institutional buying
  • • Higher highs, peak close day 4-5
  • • Strong EPS beat (>15%) or guidance raise
  • • Revenue beat >10%
  • • Minimal drawdown (<2%)
Signal weights: Gap Fill 25% · Volume Decay 20% · Price Trajectory 20% · Max Drawdown 15% · Fundamentals 20%
Classification requires ≥3 days of data; full confidence requires all 5 trading days. Classification ≥60% P&D score = Pump & Dump. ≥60% Rerating score = Genuine Rerating. Otherwise Uncertain.
P&D Detector — Pump & Dump vs Genuine Rerating | GapUpTracker